Will Google Ever Fail? These Experts Say “Yes!”

The Roman Empire was considered invincible. The Titanic was regarded as unsinkable. Time and again in history, we have seen the downfall of things that seemed too successful to ever fail.

So what about Google? Will it be a household name for our grandchildren? Or merely a line in a history book? We asked experts in the industry to share their predictions. Here’s what they had to say:

No-click searches

The short answer is yes because nothing lasts forever. Every big company that has ever dominated, tech or otherwise, has faded. The question is really when and how. While I don’t see Google going into complete oblivion anytime soon, I do think we could see them start to lose their dominant position.

This could happen for a variety of reasons, but my best guess is that Google will fail because of no-click searches. On no-click searches, instead of clicking on a result, people can get the answer from content presented directly on Google’s search result page. No-click searches now account for 50% of search results and are great for people searching on Google because they can get an answer right away. The catch, though, is that Google doesn’t produce their own content for these answers but instead sources this content from other websites.

Websites have so far been happy to provide this content to Google in exchange for traffic. But with the rise of no-click searches, Google is sending less traffic to websites. Because of this, many companies may be unwilling to let Google have access to their content–if not traffic, what are companies getting in return for sharing their content freely with Google?

If enough companies take their content away from Google, Google will be unable to deliver satisfying search results. This will, in time, drive people away from Google because the search results won’t be–can’t be–that good without this content. This would effectively destroy Google in the process.

Google can’t fail

Google has become so big that it is almost impossible for it to fail.

• Google has a nearly 90% market share of internet searches in the United States with Bing the closest competitor at under 7%.
• Almost 5-billion videos are watched on YouTube every day.
• There are over 1.5-billion Gmail users.
• More than 5-billion devices are loaded with Google Chrome.
• And any company that is not using Google AdWords won’t be found by their target customers.

Google, at this point, can’t fail because it is synonymous with the web. The word Google is so connected to the web that it is no longer just a noun but a verb as well, as in, “Did you Google it?”

The only thing that could possibly stop Google’s success is its success. Google is an internet monopoly with no real rival in search, and it dominates the online video, email, web browser, and web advertising markets. The only thing that could stop Google would be if politicians view it as an unfair monopoly and break it up like the government once did with Standard Oil. But with Google’s money and political influence, the chances of it being broken-up by the government are very small, and instead it will continue to be like Microsoft and dominate the market for years to come.

It depends!

Since the inception of Google Search, life has totally changed. We ask Google for assistance with everything from health tips to marriage advice. Google looks very powerful today, but things can turn around if it stops bringing new upgrades. Google has already released so many reliable assets, such as :

• Google Chrome – the [ever popular] browser. People are using Internet Explorer/Edge to download Chrome.
• Google docs – you don’t need to install Microsoft Office.
• Gmail – best, easy and supports all mobile devices for sending email with just one press. Many websites support Google logins.
• Google Maps

These are just some of the Google advantages, but competitors like Microsoft and Amazon are also bringing new updates to their platform. This means Google has to take further steps to enhance user experience. Amazon released Echo in 2014, which went viral. Google did the same later on by releasing a similar product called Google Home, and in two years, it had failed.

So the conclusion is, Google must continue to bring out new support tools to make the online experience better.

No company is too big to fail

History has shown that no company is too big to fail. Of course, banks are often more integrated with governments. As such, they tend to have a bit of a safety net (think RBS), but even Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail back in 2008.

There are two scenarios that I can see which would cause Google to fail, although only one has serious validity in the foreseeable future. The first is a competitor overtaking them, but with around a 90% global market share this seems fairly unlikely. The second is Google being restricted through competition laws.

Google is continuously expanding its reach. In recent years, the Big G has introduced functionality for flights, hotels and jobs directly in the search results. This has actually resulted in 23 job aggregator sites lodging a formal complaint with the European Union’s Competition Commissioner about Google’s unfair prioritisation of their own services. The EU has been heavy handed in its fining of Google, and they appear to be the only organisation looking to stem Google’s monopolisation of the search space. Will it result in Google failing? Probably not. What it will do however is to reduce Google’s rapid acquisition of screen time outside of direct search.

The core is still there

In 2002, as Google was sweeping away information sites, an expert at a major publishing conference pronounced the Google threat over. He had visited Google headquarters and the rumor was they were diversifying into Google branded items like t-shirts. Over 15 years, the brand that stands for most efficient access to the best information is stronger than ever. Sure, they’ve diversified, but the core is there.

Have they taken their eye off the ball

So the question—have they taken their eye off the ball of providing the best information efficiently. Well, a couple of signs. Certainly they pay much more attention to their core revenue—Google ads—and growing that absolutely means making their information biased towards ad payers, who may not necessarily have the best [information]. More significantly, the density of ads has increased, and anecdotally, that certainly reduces convenience and trust on the part of users.

Paid ads

Secondly, ads can only occur when someone is selling something – and that encourages Google to bend towards answers that sell something. Again, not necessarily what the seeker actually seeks.

The competition

Thirdly, and probably what they are most worried about, a growing proportion of those seeking to buy something go directly to a search engine that is all about selling and only selling – Amazon. Google today has no major search engine competitors except in the one area where it makes money- searches involving buying something. A couple of years ago, 60%+ of those searches occurred on Google; today, less than 50% occur on Google.

So, yes, there are three sure reasons why Google might be on a road to failure. Balancing their commercial needs and the customer goals is increasingly tricky.